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Deep dives into AI infrastructure stress signals, historical parallels, and the data behind the index.

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Follow the Money Down: Why AI’s Revenue Pyramid Has a Paper-Thin Base

NBER data shows 80%+ of firms report zero AI productivity impact. We traced every dollar through 5 layers: semiconductors, cloud, models, enterprise, and consumer. The base is paper-thin.

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Signal Deep Dive··12 min read

Where the AI Bubble Breaks First

The correction won’t start with Microsoft or Google. It starts with the debt-loaded middlemen and power stocks that priced in a decade of demand in 18 months. CoreWeave, Vistra, Constellation — the numbers.

Macro Deep Dive··18 min read

Three Data Centers in a Trench Coat: 4% of GDP, 92% of Growth

AI infrastructure is just 4% of GDP but drove 92% of GDP growth in H1 2025. Strip it out and the economy grew 0.1%. The housing parallel, $120B in hidden debt, and what happens when they stop building.

Thesis Deep Dive··8 min read

The AI Infrastructure Bubble, Explained

The financial case for why the largest capex buildout in history may not pay for itself. Every number sourced, every claim cited.

Signal Deep Dive··10 min read

AI Layoffs or Capex Layoffs? What the Data Actually Shows

Companies are cutting headcount and calling it AI transformation. But the layoffs track with infrastructure spending, not with automation. The data tells a different story.

More articles every week.

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