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Deep dives into AI infrastructure stress signals, historical parallels, and the data behind the index.

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The AI Infrastructure Bubble, Explained

The financial case for why the largest capex buildout in history may not pay for itself. Every number sourced, every claim cited.

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Signal Deep Dive··11 min read

AI’s Picks and Shovels Problem: The Energy Companies That Can’t Afford a Downturn

Everyone calls NVIDIA the picks and shovels of AI. But the real infrastructure dependency is energy — and the companies providing it have balance sheets that can’t survive a correction.

Signal Deep Dive··7 min read

AI Layoffs or Capex Layoffs? What the Oxbridge Data Actually Shows

Companies are cutting headcount and calling it AI transformation. But the layoffs track with infrastructure spending, not with automation. The data tells a different story.

Signal Deep Dive··9 min read

CoreWeave: The Canary in the AI Coal Mine

$14 billion in debt, 9x EBITDA leverage, and 62% of revenue from a single customer. CoreWeave is the most leveraged bet in AI infrastructure.

Data Transparency··6 min read

The $176B Depreciation Trick Hiding in Plain Sight

Hyperscalers extended GPU useful life from 3 to 6 years. That suppresses expenses and inflates earnings. Here’s how.

Historical Parallels··10 min read

AI Capex vs. the Dot-Com Buildout: A Visual Comparison

Adjusted for inflation, AI infrastructure spending is outpacing fiber/telecom by 3x at the same point in the cycle.

More articles every week.

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